Thursday, November 1, 2012

SPX - Technical View

The stochastic indicator gave a buy-signal on the daily chart, where the MACD-histogram also hints to a CIT. The neutral doji expresses indecision approaching a market turn within the next trading days. In Elliott-Wave terms the SPX currently seems to be within some corrective 4th-wave. If this is true, it would - by definition - imply a 5th-wave down to a lower low.

The session on Oct 31 turned out to be a NR7-day.  A short term breakout from the last 4 sessions' narrow range is likely.

The seasonal chart turned up in late October already. There seems to be some positive divergence in the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, while the  Summation Index still points down. Likewise the TRIN and the VIX both hint to another hike down.

The Delta-Pattern, the Eurodollar COT-data, and a 45 Year correlation also suggest some more choppy sideway and down days into the Elections.