Thursday, November 29, 2012

Geocentric Bradley Index 2013

2012-12-31 (Mon) = @ 0
2013-01-03 (Thu) = High
2013-01-08 (Tue) = @ 0
2013-01-14 (Mon) = Low
2013-01-16 (Wed) = @ 0
2013-01-21 (Mon) = High
2013-01-24 (Thu) = @ 0
2013-01-28 (Mon) = Low
2013-01-31 (Thu) = @ 0
2013-03-06 (Wed) = High 
2013-03-11 (Mon) = Low
2013-03-29 (Fri) = High
2013-04-05 (Fri) = Low
2013-05-06 (Mon) = High
2013-05-15 (Wed) = Low 
2013-05-31 (Fri) = High 
2013-06-10 (Mon) = Low
2013-06-21 (Fri) = Major High
2013-07-02 (Tue) = Low
2013-07-10 (Wed) = High
2013-08-22 (Thu) = Low
2013-08-30 (Fri) = High
2013-10-07 (Mon) = Major Low
2013-11-01 (Fri) = Major High
2013-12-03 (Tue) = @ 0
2014-01-01 (Wed) = Low

Sunday, November 25, 2012

The Essence

Proportion is to Space what Rhythm is to Music
In the sight of the Essence, which is one, the universe is like a single being. The essential unity of the world is the most certain of things but also the most hidden: all knowledge and every perception, however adequate or inadequate, presupposes the essential Unity of beings and of things. 

... It may thus be said that man, who is a microcosm, and the universe, which is a macrocosm, are like two mirrors each reflecting the other. On the one hand man only exists in relation to the macrocosm which determines him, and on the other hand man knows the macrocosm, and this means that all the possibilities which are unfolded in the world are principally contained in man’s intellectual essence. This is the meaning of the saying in the Qur'ān: “And He (God) taught Adam all the names (i.e. all the essences of beings and of things)” (2:31) 

Titus Burckhardt (1953): Introduction to Sufi Doctrine, p. 63-64.

Monday, November 19, 2012

Trading Thanksgiving Week

According to Jeffrey Hirsch the best short-term trade strategy is to buy on Monday or Tuesday weakness and sell at least half into the Wednesday strength and get out on Friday of Thanksgiving week.  

Monday is usually weak (Dow Jones down 33 of last 60 years), but it’s getting better and better till Friday. Tuesday was up 35 of last 60. Wednesday is the most bullish day (up 44 of last 60) since 1952, and 8 since 2002. On average Friday is as good as Wednesday but was not so good recently since 2006. 

Applying this strategy in 2010 and 2011 resulted in net losses. This year there's a major deadline looming for the Super Committee to agree on a deficit reduction proposal by November 23rd. Failure to reach an agreement could have a major market impact that could buck any seasonal trend. See also HERE

Friday, November 16, 2012

45 Year Cycle

The second year of the Decennial Cycle again has this staggering correlation between the US stock markets of 1967 and 2012 - currently 89% (HERE). This is 45 years apart. W.D.Gann veiled it as follows: "The digits 1 to 9 when added together total 45. 45 is the most important angle. Therefore 45 years in time is a very important cycle. One-half of 45 is 22 ½ years or 270 months. One-fourth of 45 is 11 ½ years or 135 months, which is three times 45.

In other words: Saturn-Uranus Cycle ≈ 45.3 Years ≈ conjunction, square or opposition happening about every 11.3 Years ≈ 4 * Sunspot Cycles of an average of 11.3 Years.  Of course the 45 year cycle is important, but finally just one cycle among many others, all together modulating the tides of events.  

However, sure there are periods with a specific feeling, a mentality, a zeitgeist of the majority of people, an attitude, an aura, that last for about 45 years. Hence there is also a 45 year cycle of scientific and social innovation and stagnation, each of about 20 years where there is science innovation, but humanities, opinion and social relations are "conservative" and do not change. There is a transition of about 2 to 4 years and then the humanities have numerous experiments and changes, but science becomes stagnant and does not innovate. Social conflict, revolution and war are also synchronous with this pattern (HERE & HERE & HERE & HERE).

The average second year of a decade prints a major low around this time of the year, which is (on average) amongst the best long-term buying opportunities of the decade, since during the third year the DJIA significantly surges above the second year highs. Another important fact is, that the DJIA's closed the average Election Year solidly above the June and November lows. Jeffrey Hirsh points out: "Presidential election years are the second best performing year of the four-year cycle ... When incumbent parties retained power ... stocks often bottomed within two years later ... we could see a bottom by 2014." Ten years ago some stock indices bottomed in October 2002, others in March 2003. In fact, the 45 Year Cycle projects another major low into March 2013 (most likely below this upcoming November low), and the low of the decade into May 2015. This is 43 months off the March 2009 low or 4 more 9 Month Cycles throughs ahead of us, where the current Kitchin Cycle terminates. Much could be debated on whether it is the last one of Kondratieff-Winter or the 1st one of Spring in the 6th Kondratieff-Cycle.

Such long-term projections should be understood with a grain of salt, since planetary cycles are not circles, but ellipses, where angular distance and progression does not correlate 1:1 with solar or lunar calendars. Therefore measured in days, weeks or months, these big cycles oftentimes seem to extend or to skip and shrink (HERE). Also a sequence of cycles does not need to print out identical patterns, but similar ones. Therefore the projected panic low in early 2015 does not necessarily need to become a lower low. Given the inflationary monetary policy, it could very well just mark the end of a huge (even ascending) triangle pattern that started in 1998 and 2000. 

Ideally this current decline should end on November 19, and a rally throughout the Thanksgiving-week is likely. Mercury turns direct on November 26, which is best for a ITD #8 high. A drop into a higher low on the Lunar Eclipse on November 28 is expected. An intermediate high will be in by December 3-4. A decline into the December low around New Moon ideally ends on Monday, 17th. From there some sort of early and extended Santa Claus-rally will ensue into year end or even the first trading days of 2013 (see also HERE). This will be the end of the correction. From that important high (right shoulder in the Head-and-Shoulders pattern or TPDH #27) the stock markets will start another steep decline into the general vicinity of the October 2011 low (SPX 1.100 - 1.070 / DJI 10.600 - 10.400). This 9 month cycle low is scheduled for as early as March 1 or as late as the equinox. It will be the low of 2013, the start of a new TPDH-pattern and the launchpad for a rally into December 2013. This matches the latest prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 with a maximum in the Fall of 2013. What puzzles however is the Commercial's Eurodollar Positions suggesting the party will be over by late May early June 2013 already. Time will tell.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

SPX vs Solar Flux & Lunar Cycle

Active Region 1613, located in southern hemisphere, produced three M-class solar flares in last 6 hours. At 23:28 UTC, November 12, 2012 it peaked with M2.0 solar flare, then on November 13, 2012 at 02:04 an impulsive M6.0 peaked followed by M2.5 at 05:50 UTC (HERE). 

See also HERE & HERE

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Update - SPX vs Heliocentric Latitude Composite

2012-10-03 (Wed) = Swing-High 
2012-10-16 (Tue) = 1/4 Point
2012-10-28 (Sun) = 1/2 Point
2012-11-09 (Fri) = 3/4 Point
2012-11-21 (Wed) = Swing-Low

2012-12-01 (Sat) = 1/4 Point
2012-12-10 (Mon) = 1/2 Point
2012-12-20 (Thu) = 3/4 Point
2012-12-29 (Sat) = Swing-High

See also HERE.

SPX vs Outer Planets Going Retrograde / Direct

(Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution).
Stock markets' trend usually changes when the planets change direction, especially the outer ones.

11.10.2012  22:50 SA = Neptune direct 

T.S. Phillips: "This week’s major planetary event is Tuesday’s total Solar Eclipse  ... as Mercury squares Neptune ... The key reversal day of the week is likely to be after hours on Tuesday or on Wednesday.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

S&P 500 1967 vs 2012

The 1967 New Moons seem to be synchronized to the 2012 Full Moons = 16,434 CD = 44 years 11 months 28 days = analogous to Saturn-Uranus Cycle of 45.363 years = 1/2 of Gann's 90 Year Cycle. The 1967 - 2012 correlation is 89%. The daily close of Nov 7 may well be the low of the month (HERE). However, the 1967 bar chart predicts more choppy and unhealthy sideways-to-up movement into New Moon (Nov 13 = Solar Eclipse) followed by a retest of the low on Nov 16-19 (Fri-Mon).

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

SPX vs Lunar Cycle, Lunar Inclination & Bradley Index

The Battery - New York Harbor
[ 40.7000° N, 74.0150° W ]

2012-10-29  15:50 EDT   Full Moon
2012-11-06  19:36 EST   Last Quarter
2012-11-13  17:08 EST   New Moon = Total Solar Eclipse
2012-11-20  09:32 EST   First Quarter
2012-11-28  09:47 EST   Full Moon = Penumbral Lunar Eclipse
2012-12-06  10:32 EST   Last Quarter
2012-12-13  03:42 EST   New Moon
Mercury's Declination out of Bound 
11.01.2012 TH - 11.07.2012 WD (more HERE)

Monday, November 5, 2012

Guy Fawkes' Day

November 5th is still marked each year in the English calendar as Guy Fawkes' Day. It was the day the London government staged its famous false flag operation in 1605: The Gunpowder Plot. Even today, few understand Guy Fawkes was no fox but a dupe ensnared by the chief minister himself in a madcap scheme to blow up King and Parliament. The real plot was royally successful: to invent a pretext for war with Spain. This fraud was the foundation of the British empire.   

In 1898, the American century was ushered in by a similar anti-Spanish hoax: the bombing of the USS Maine in Havana harbor. And on 9/11/2001, plotters embedded in the US government, working on a Project for a New American Century and a new Greater Middle East, faked the pretext for a Clash of Civilizations - and a neo-fascist world order. More HERE + HERE + HERE

The Wash-Rinse-Repeat Cycle

Financial Sense - Chris Puplava 11/02/2012: The leading tendency of the performance for early to late-stage cyclicals relative to the performance of the stock market suggests that the stock market rallies post the election and does well in the first part of the year [2013] but then we see a selloff heading into the summer before we bottom. Looks like the “Wash-Rinse-Repeat Cycle Strikes Again” for a fourth year! 

If we do run into late Q1 to early Q2 weakness in the economy in 2013 we are likely to begin seeing the early fingerprints of that in the stock market beginning now where the stock market rallies into the end of the year on weaker breadth and momentum.

Friday, November 2, 2012

Conjure away Debt

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard- 21 Oct 2012: ... A paper by the International Monetary Fund claims that one could eliminate the net public debt of the US at a stroke, and by implication do the same for Britain, Germany, Italy, or Japan. ... The conjuring trick is to replace our system of private bank-created money - roughly 97% of the money supply - with state-created money. ... If lenders are forced to put up 100% reserve backing for deposits, they lose the exorbitant privilege of creating money out of thin air. The nation regains sovereign control over the money supply. ... The IMF study came out in August and has begun to acquire a cult following around the world. Entitled "The Chicago Plan Revisited", it revives the scheme first put forward by professors Henry Simons and Irving Fisher in 1936 during the ferment of creative thinking in the late Depression. Read all HERE and watch THIS

Thursday, November 1, 2012

SPX - Technical View

The stochastic indicator gave a buy-signal on the daily chart, where the MACD-histogram also hints to a CIT. The neutral doji expresses indecision approaching a market turn within the next trading days. In Elliott-Wave terms the SPX currently seems to be within some corrective 4th-wave. If this is true, it would - by definition - imply a 5th-wave down to a lower low.

The session on Oct 31 turned out to be a NR7-day.  A short term breakout from the last 4 sessions' narrow range is likely.

The seasonal chart turned up in late October already. There seems to be some positive divergence in the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, while the  Summation Index still points down. Likewise the TRIN and the VIX both hint to another hike down.

The Delta-Pattern, the Eurodollar COT-data, and a 45 Year correlation also suggest some more choppy sideway and down days into the Elections.

Update - S&P 500 vs Commercial's Net Positions in Eurodollars 1 Year Ago

Tom McClellan discovered that commercial traders' net positions in Eurodollar futures shifted one year into the future are very likely to forecast the direction of the US stock markets (HERE).  CITs are (+/- 3 TD * ):

10/18/2012 high
11/08/2012 low
11/29/2012 high
12/13/2012 low
01/03/2013 high
02/14/2013 low

* COT-data  is  taken  from  the  close  of business  on  Tuesday  and  then released on the following Friday at 3:30 PM ET for futures only. It is also released twice a month or every other Monday for futures combined with the figures for options.