Thursday, October 11, 2012

Carl Futia - Top of Domed House ?

Credits: Carl Futia
... On October 5 the Dow put it its highest print and highest close of the bull market which started from the March 2009 low point. It is easy to see the "squarish" topping pattern characteristic of domed house tops. These usually look like lopsided head and shoulders tops. If this one runs true to form there should be a rally from yesterday's low to a lower top which would be point 25 on the chart. One fact which supports this interpretation is that the standard time count of 7 months 10 days if started from point 15 predicts a high in early October.

It is certainly possible that I am a bit early in my interpretation here. Perhaps the October 5 top will turn out to be point 21 instead of point 23.

...The strongest single piece of bullish evidence I see is that the majority of investors surveyed by AAII are bearish. I think it would be unprecedented for a bear market to start under such conditions. But precedents are made to be broken as are all statistical records. The other piece of bullish evidence can be found in the action of the bull market leaders, Google and Apple, both of which made historical highs within the past couple of weeks. Another leading sector, home building, is also at new bull market highs.

Looking at all this evidence I'd say that the bearish factors are ones which are not helpful for precise timing. The AAII sentiment number suggests that my call of point 23 is early, but as I said above that just means that the domed house will take more time to develop its top. So I think the best way to approach this market is to defer a bear market prognosis until the green trend line is broken or until another point 23 or point 27 at new bull market highs becomes visible when AAII sentiment is bullish, not bearish as it is now.  

Credits: Carl Futia

See also HERE