Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Tom McClellan: Election Year Differences

The current performance of the S&P 500 looks a lot like the typical performance during an election year with a 1st term president running for reelection. 

The minor movements of the S&P 500 seem to be arriving about 2-3 trading days late versus what the pattern says, but that small lag is at least consistent over time.


Looking ahead, this version of the Presidential Cycle Pattern says that we should expect to see a choppy uptrend continuing toward election day, perhaps with some significant "texture" along the way.  

The strong correlation up until now suggests that this pattern is working reliably.  Once we see how the election turns out, we can then figure out which pattern to follow starting in November.