Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Peak of 4-Year Cycle = Peak of Solar Cycle 24 ?

Cliff Droke: [Last] week's Barron's cover ... speaks for itself as it suggests the bull market has staying power and will continue despite the efforts of the bears at stopping it. Might this also be interpreted as a contrarian signal that the bull market will in fact soon be halted? 

... The 4-year cycle is scheduled to peak around October 1, plus or minus a few days ... The worst part of the crisis lies ahead in the years 2013-2014  ... The 120-year cycle bottom in late 2014. 

However: For the time being Delta cycles are pointing to a consolidation of the recent breakout into New Moon = sideways-to-down movement into September 14-17 (this year “Buy Rosh Hashanah, Sell Yom Kippur” instead ?), a High around the Equinox, a Low by late September - early October, followed by another rally into the US-elections (also see the Election Year Seasonal Chart of the S&P 500 HERE). 

Francis Bussiere: Technically, the SPX broke above the May 2011 highs near 1370 and reached the next resistance near the May 2008 highs of 1440 keeping the rally from 2009 into a probable 4 year cycle high in 2012-13 alive but the well tested 1370-1400 area must hold going forward. The peak of the 13 Year Cycle (Bradley Cowan's 666-Week Beast Cycle) points to September 2013. 

Solar Cycle 24: NASA just recently shifted their projected peak of Solar Cycle 24 from Spring 2013 to Fall 2013, and John Hampson concludes in 2013 this "would put [stocks] more into a sideways range period, making stocks neither a buy nor a sell", while "commodities may not make their parabolic finale until late 2013 or early 2014 ... commodities could ... truly accelerate from as early as Spring to as late as Fall/Autumn 2013. The post solar peak recession would be pushed out to starting likely 2014."