Thursday, August 16, 2012

August 15th = NR105

SPX on 2012-08-15 (Wed) = Open 1403.89, High 1407.73, Low 1401.83, Close 1405.53, Range = High - Low = 5.90 = narrowest range of the last 105 Trading Days !!! According to Toby Crabel, an expansion is due no later then after the narrowest daily range in 7 days (= NR7). Aug 15 (Wed) was another NR7-day + Inside Day (ID) = IDNR7 = the ideal setup for breakout move, a decent outside-day (OD). Best guess: a breakout up, even a fake one. Breakout days are often one day wonders, and don’t follow through from the first day move (Larry Williams calls them big Oops). Since we are moving into New Moon (Aug 17 09:56) and Moon in Leo (Aug 17 20:09), it is likely this will be the case (HERE & HERE). 

  • Stretch = 1.56 points = BUY above 1407 or SELL below 1404. Targets: 1417 + 1423. Support: 1402 + 1399 + 1393. 
  • Stretch for ESU12 = 4.43 = BUY above 1408 or SELL below 1399.Target: 1419 + 1431. Support: PP @ 1402 + 1399 + 1393.  
The 10 TD Hurst Cycle LOW is due Aug 16 +/-2 TD. Larger cycles point to a major higher-high around 1450 - 1500 by late August - early September (HERE & HERE & HERE). Other analysts even see a melt-up into October. Time will tell.