Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Update: ITD - LTD - SLTD

On July 11 the SPX should form the ITD #7 LOW followed by a rally into July 19 = ITD # 8 [+/- 2 TD; see also HERE]. 

The 4 Lunar Year Cycle (LTD - chart 1 below) suggests ITD #8 is likely to stay below the July 3-5 HIGH (ITD #6). If this is correct, July 19 [+/-] will be a very important high [see also HERE], and the SPX might immediately start a multi-month decline.

However, as mentioned earlier, the 14,475 CD Cycle (charts 2 + 3) points to a higher high (= SLTD #16) in late August [HERE]. Nothing seems impossible: Tony Caldaro explained how the FED's Liquidity Programs pull the stock market up ("for every $20 bln the FED purchases in long term debt the stock market rises 1%"), and John Hampson just concluded:
"... the bigger picture suggests that an enduring move should be at hand away from treasury bonds and the US dollar towards commodities and stocks (particularly European), in other words a major rally in pro-risk and out of safe havens."

In late June an Inversion of Polarity in the 354 CD Cycle (Lunar Year Cycle) took place e.g. in the SPX and the Nikkei (charts 4 + 5). This suggests a reversal up today [+/-] into at least July 19 [+/-].

Interestingly there was also an inversion in the correlation between solar flux and the stock markets around Summer Solstice [HERE]. 
14,475 CD = 40.84 Lunar Years = 39,63 Solar Years / 4 = 4 * 9.9 Year Cycle = 4 Juglar Cycles 
[see also HERE + HERE + HERE + HERE]