Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Charles Nenner on Stocks, Bonds and Gold

Interview of June 25th, 2012

Nenner is looking to start getting long again this week. Focused on cycles and momentum Nenner sees a cyclical low coming in the next few days. He's a buyer anywhere from 1,280 to 1,230 on the S&P 500 but cautions those who are looking for a chance to buy and hold profitably:
"People looking for major moves are going to be disappointed," he says. Timing and trading are key as he thinks stocks are going to be locked into a 5-10% range for an extended period."
Screenshot of 0:32 min - The chart shown during the interview obviously does NOT match Mr. Nenner's outlines in this interview.
Maybe Mr. Nenner should NOT be taken too serious.
Last year he predicted the DJI to plunge to 5,000
 "First people lost their shirts on the stock market then the gold market." says Nenner. "I'm afraid that now they're going to lose a lot of money on their bond positions."
Of course people have been taking the other side of the bond bet for the better part of three decades, only to see yields drop to previously unthinkable lows. You have to squint to see the change but Nenner says yields have already bottomed. Bonds may fluctuate on their way but the trader is taking, building and holding as a "core position" the ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ year Treasury ETF (TBT).


Those unfortunate souls who lost their shirts on gold buying it at $1,900 may ultimately get bailed out by the markets but not before getting hung out to dry for a little while longer. In the near term Nenner says the cycle is going lower until the end of August or early September.
Nenner's downside target for gold is $1375 to $1325 but he's a buyer in size there; his long-term target remains $2,500.