Monday, February 27, 2012

Hurst ST Outlook – 25 February 2012

The exact placement of the 20-week cycle trough is not easy to determine because of the very subtle fluctuations in price over the last eight weeks, but I still favor the placement on 30 January 2012, because of the peak in 30 year US Bond prices on that date (see below). The above chart shows an alternate position for the trough, but it makes little difference to the analysis.

Tides @ WP (NYC) Feb - May 2012

SpiralDates - March 2012

SPX vs Delta Cycles

Today's day session range estimate is 1350-1360. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370. The May 2011 top was at 1373. After that top is exceeded a drop of 50-70 points again becomes likely. But even so I expect the market to move well above the 1400 level over the next few months.