Saturday, December 29, 2012

Update - 45 Year Cycle

1967 = Daily High - Low Band














1967 = End of Day Close

1967 = End of Day Close
Full Moon 1967 = New Moon 2012

Thursday, December 27, 2012

SPX vs George Bayer's Rule #38 - Latitude of Mercury

MERCURY LATITUDE HELIOCENTRIC
In the present rule we shall use the heliocentric Latitude of Mercury ...
There are four values in this line which bring forth changes of trend. These values are: 0°00', 3°21, 6°42, and 7°00’. The inside values are effective on either side, on the way up also on the way down. Some mighty fine tops and bottoms are produced when Mercury in this motion passes the above mentioned degrees.
[George Bayer (1940): Stock and Commodity Traders´ Hand-Book of Trend Determination. Carmel, California; p. 41] 

2012-12-04 11:39 (Tue)    MER Lat = 6°42'
2012-12-15 12:07 (Sat)    MER Lat = 3°21'
2012-12-24 13:10 (Mon)    MER Lat = 0
2013-01-03 17:08 (Thu)    MER Lat = -3°21'

2013-01-19 02:39 (Sat)    MER Lat = -6°42'
2013-01-24 03:54 (Thu)    MER Lat = -7°00'
2013-01-28 15:41 (Mon)    MER Lat = -6°42'
2013-02-07 05:49 (Thu)    MER Lat = -3°21'
2013-02-12 05:28 (Tue)    MER Lat = 0

2013-02-16 19:32 (Sat)    MER Lat = 3°21'
2013-02-24 01:29 (Sun)    MER Lat = 6°42'
2013-02-27 02:56 (Wed)    MER Lat = 7°00'
2013-03-02 10:57 (Sat)    MER Lat = 6°42'
2013-03-13 12:23 (Wed)    MER Lat = 3°21'

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

SPX vs George Bayer's Rule #6A - Declination of Mars

MARS DECLINATION HELIOCENTRIC, 19°51’00” *

From the Nautical Almanac, page 191 up we find the apparent Declination of Mars. We use in this only the value 19°51’. We locate these days ahead of time and expect tops and bottoms to appear there ... These cases happen twice or three times a year.
[George Bayer (1940): Stock and Commodity Traders´ Hand-Book of Trend Determination. Carmel, California; p. 47]
* Heliocentric declination does not exist. In astronomy the heliocentric coordinate system uses longitude and latitude; the geocentric coordinates system longitude and declination. Since Mars oscillates between latitude +/- 1.85 degrees, Bayer was actually looking for days when Mars' declination was at +/- 19°51’00” = 19.850 degrees.


HERE
2012-09-30 02:05 (Sun)    MAR Dec = -19.850 degrees
2012-11-17 16:17 (Sat)    MAR Dec @ Extr Min
2013-01-02 15:15 (Wed)    MAR Dec = -19.850 degrees
2013-03-14 06:51 (Thu)    MAR Dec = 0
2013-05-29 02:18 (Wed)    MAR Dec = 19.850 degrees
2013-07-16 07:16 (Tue)    MAR Dec @ Extr Max
2013-09-05 21:31 (Thu)    MAR Dec = 19.850 degrees
2013-12-16 20:50 (Mon)    MAR Dec = 0
2014-02-27 23:45 (Thu)    MAR Dec @ Min














S&P500 vs Jupiter-Mars Cycle

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.
24.04.2012  06:54 = JUP 135 MAR
04.06.2012  02:21 = JUP 150 MAR
12.07.2012  12:47 = JUP 165 MAR
17.08.2012  08:59 = JUP 180 MAR
19.09.2012  17:41 = JUP 195 MAR
20.10.2012  22:50 = JUP 210 MAR
19.11.2012  10:08 = JUP 225 MAR
17.12.2012  17:29 = JUP 240 MAR
14.01.2013  08:05 = JUP 255 MAR
10.02.2013  18:05 = JUP 270 MAR
10.03.2013  12:35 = JUP 285 MAR
08.04.2013  01:32 = JUP 300 MAR
07.05.2013  21:38 = JUP 315 MAR
08.06.2013  11:54 = JUP 330 MAR

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Sunday, December 23, 2012

We Call This Progress

More HERE
By Arundhati Roy (December 17, 2012) India continues to militarize, it continues to become a police state. In the last twenty years, after we embraced the free market, two hundred and fifty thousand farmers have committed suicide, because they have been driven into debt. This has never happened in human history before. Yet, obviously when the establishment has a choice between suicide farmers and suicide bombers, you know which ones they are going to encourage ... [India] has 80 percent of its population living on less than twenty rupees a day, which is less than fifty [dollar] cents a day.

... [the] Tatas are the biggest company. They own iron ore mines, steel manufacturing plants, iodized salt, and television providers. They manufacture trucks, they fund activists, they do everything ... The CEO is a member of Parliament. He also started the National Flag Foundation, because he won the right to fly the national flag on his house. They run a global law school just outside Delhi, which is like a Stanford campus in the midst of the most unbelievable squalor you can imagine ... They recently had a protest workshop where they flew in activists to this unbelievably posh campus and then had protest poetry and protest slogans. They own everything; they own the resistance, the mines, the Parliament, the flag, the newspapers. They don’t let anything go. These are some simple things that have to stop.

Saturday, December 22, 2012

S&P500 vs Saturn-Uranus Cycle

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.
In the early 1930s James Mars Langham began publishing on the correlation between the stock market and  geocentric cycles like Jupiter-Saturn, Saturn-Venus, Saturn-Uranus, etc. Here we look at the heliocentric Saturn-Uranus Cycle. Due to orbital eccentricity, the progression of 90 degrees angular distance takes 9 to 12 years, the whole round 44.11 years:

SAT 000 URA 06/09/1988
SAT 090 URA 01/29/2000
SAT 180 URA 09/02/2009
SAT 270 URA 10/19/2021
SAT 000 URA 07/20/2032

More suitable for swing-trading is the 768th harmonic (0, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 96, 192, 384, 768. 360°/768 = 0.46875 degrees = 0 28' 7.5"). The progression takes 17.59 to 25.39 days, and the current values are:

2012-11-28 20:55 (Wed) =  22.27 CD
2012-12-21 04:15 (Fri) = 22.31 CD 
2013-01-12 12:35 (Sat) = 22.35 CD

Since this is not a static progression, the next 384th harmonic will last 44.65 days, the 192nd 89.47 days, the 96th 179.61 days, etc. 

1+2 = 3
1+2+3 = 6
1+2+3+6 = 12
1+2+3+6+12 = 24
1+2+3+6+12+24 = 48
1+2+3+6+12+24+48 = 96
1+2+3+6+12+24+48+96 = 192
1+2+3+6+12+24+48+96+192 = 384
1+2+3+6+12+24+48+96+192+384 = 768 

Stéphane Guisard - Zodiacal Light and Milky Way

HERE

Friday, December 21, 2012

Declinations 2013

Declinations: How they affect the stock market.
A case study by Sergey Tarassov HERE

SUN parallel MAR 12/12/2012
MER par PLU 12/14/2012
JUP contra parallel MER 12/18/2012
PLU par VEN 12/19/2012
MER par MAR 12/21/2012 + SUN @ extremum South
JUP c.p VEN 12/24/2012
MAR par VEN 12/25/2012
SUN par MER 12/26/2012
JUP c.p MAR 12/27/2012
MAR par PLU 01/03/2013
SUN par VEN 01/04/2013


See also HERE
Calculate formula (MAR_DEC+MERC_DEC)-VEN_DEC HERE

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Sun conjunct Galactic Center

In 1932, Karl Jansky, a Bell Telephone Laboratories engineer, was searching for the source of static affecting overseas telephone lines. To detect the source he built a 95 foot radio-telescope. Part of the static turned out to be created by the center of our Galaxy, a huge black hole about the size of a large star containing the mass of four million Suns. The Galactic Center (GC), then at 25°55' of Sagittarius, is the Sun of our Sun, and source of the utmost gravitational energy present in our galaxy. Our Solar System takes approximately 226 million years to revolve around the Galactic Center. In 1969 Edward R. Dewey wrote about the influence of the GC on financial markets (Cycles Magazine, Vol.20.10, p. 230 f. + Vol.20.12, p. 277 f.). According to standard rates of precession, the GC currently resides at 27°01' 57'' of Sagittarius (= 267.032 = Sagittarius A* - pronounced Sagittarius A star; other sources point to 267.031 and 267.024 degrees), and conjuncts with our Sun today (times below GMT).

19.09.2012 13:59   SUN 090 GC
04.11.2012 01:24   SUN 045 GC
18.12.2012 13:15   SUN 000 GC
31.01.2013 18:01   SUN 045 GC
17.03.2013 11:25   SUN 090 GC


However, this is but one among many cosmic events and forces, all together modulating mundane affairs (HERE).

Friday, December 14, 2012

SPX vs George Bayer's Rule #9 - Mercury @ 19°36’ Scorpio

MERCURY GEOCENTRIC PASSING OVER 19°36’ SCORPIO AND SAGITTARIUS, ALSO OVER 24°14’ CAPRICORN PRODUCES BIG CHANGES *

Whatever the cause may be, why there are changes produced when Mercury passes certain geocentric degrees we do not know. The rule gives results. The values are 19°36’ Scorpio and Sagittarius, also 24°14’ in Capricorn ... While the first two values bring forth important changes of trend, the last value brings forth all tops in the five years’ period tested, which is quite encouraging to make commitments upon. The opposing places bring also changes: 19°36’ Taurus, 19°16” Gemini and 24°14’ Cancer.
[George Bayer (1940): Stock and Commodity Traders´ Hand-Book of Trend Determination. Carmel, California; p. 18]
*19°36’ Scorpio = 229.316 degrees   *19°36’ Sagittarius = 259.600 degrees  *24°14’ Capricorn = 294.233 degrees

2011-11-21 11:19 (Mon)    MER @ 19(sag)36
2011-11-26 13:26 (Sat)    MER @ 19(sag)36
2011-12-31 14:37 (Sat)    MER @ 19(sag)36
2012-01-23 23:15 (Mon)    MER @ 24(cap)14
2012-10-19 10:54 (Fri)    MER @ 19(sco)36
2012-11-22 20:55 (Thu)    MER @ 19(sco)36
2012-11-30 22:06 (Fri)    MER @ 19(sco)36
2012-12-24 12:51 (Mon)    MER @ 19(sag)36
2013-01-15 14:51 (Tue)    MER @ 24(cap)14
2013-11-27 23:17 (Wed)    MER @ 19(sco)36
2013-12-17 13:49 (Tue)    MER @ 19(sag)36
2014-01-08 05:11 (Wed)    MER @ 24(cap)14

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Phi and Pi in the Solar System

Venus orbits the Sun in 224.695 days while Earth orbits the Sun in 365.242 days, creating a ratio of 8 / 13 (both Fibonacci numbers) or 0.615 (roughly phi).  Thus 5 conjunctions of Earth and Venus occur every 8 orbits of the Earth around the Sun and every 13 orbits of Venus.  
Mercury orbits the Sun in 87.968 Earth days, creating a conjunction with the Earth every 115.88 days. Thus there are 365.24 / 115.88 conjunctions in a year, or 22 conjunctions in 7 years, which is close to pi.  
More HERE + HERE + HERE + HERE

S&P 500 vs Mercury's Elongation Cycle

When Mercury is visible after sunset, it is near its greatest eastern elongation; when visible before sunrise, near its greatest western elongation. Most of the time these extremes coincide with short-term changes in market-trend. The last one was the December 4 low in stocks (EOD close - Mercury elongation calculator HERE).

MER MAX Elongation East = 10/26/2012 04:48 PM @ 24.1°
MER MAX Elongation West = 12/04/2012 06:11 PM @ 20.6° 

MER MAX Elongation East = 02/16/2013 04:17 PM @ 18.1°
MER MAX Elongation West = 03/31/2013 04:50 PM @ 27.8°
MER MAX Elongation East = 06/12/2013 11:45 AM @ 24.3°
MER MAX Elongation West = 07/30/2013 03:48 AM @ 19.6°
MER MAX Elongation West = 08/16/2012 07:04 AM @ 18.7°

Friday, December 7, 2012

Heliocentric Bradley Index 2013


2012-12-28 (Fri) = @ 0
2013-01-01 (Tue) = Major Low
2013-01-04 (Fri) = @ 0
2013-01-09 (Wed) = High
2013-01-16 (Wed) = Low
@ 0
2013-01-28 (Mon) = High
2013-02-13 (Wed) = Low
2013-03-04 (Mon) = High
2013-03-08 (Fri) = Low
2013-03-18 (Mon) = High
2013-03-22 (Fri) = Low
2013-04-08 (Mon) = High
2013-04-15 (Mon) = Low
2013-04-26 (Fri) = High
2013-04-30 (Tue) = Low
2013-05-07 (Tue) = High
2013-05-10 (Fri) = Low
2013-05-16 (Thu) = High
2013-05-24 (Fri) = Low
2013-05-31 (Fri) = High
2013-06-05 (Wed) = Low
2013-06-12 (Wed) = High
2013-06-21 (Fri) = Low
2013-07-05 (Fri) = Major High
2013-07-17 (Wed) = Low
2013-07-23 (Tue) = High
2013-07-26 (Fri) = Low
2013-08-02 (Fri) = High
2013-08-08 (Thu) = Low
2013-08-12 (Mon) = High
2013-08-22 (Thu) = Low
2013-08-26 (Mon) = High
2013-09-02 (Mon) = Low
2013-09-10 (Tue) = High
2013-10-07 (Mon) = Major Low @ 0
2013-10-18 (Fri) = High
2013-11-19 (Tue) = Low
2013-11-22 (Fri) = High
2013-11-29 (Fri) = Low
2013-12-06 (Fri) = High
2013-12-13 (Fri) = Major Low

Update - 45 Year Cycle

According to MRCI the correlation between the SPX 1967 and 2012 has now risen to 90%. From a major low on Nov 20, 1967 @ 90.09 to the major high @ 97.84 on Jan 9, 1968 the SPX had gained +6.75%. 

The time and price correlations point to a major high on Jan 7, 2013 @ 1.454 - slightly exceeding the 0.786 retrace of the Sep 14, 2012 high @ 1.446. See also HERE

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Geocentric Bradley Index 2013

2012-12-31 (Mon) = @ 0
2013-01-03 (Thu) = High
2013-01-08 (Tue) = @ 0
2013-01-14 (Mon) = Low
2013-01-16 (Wed) = @ 0
2013-01-21 (Mon) = High
2013-01-24 (Thu) = @ 0
2013-01-28 (Mon) = Low
2013-01-31 (Thu) = @ 0
2013-03-06 (Wed) = High 
2013-03-11 (Mon) = Low
2013-03-29 (Fri) = High
2013-04-05 (Fri) = Low
2013-05-06 (Mon) = High
2013-05-15 (Wed) = Low 
2013-05-31 (Fri) = High 
2013-06-10 (Mon) = Low
2013-06-21 (Fri) = Major High
2013-07-02 (Tue) = Low
2013-07-10 (Wed) = High
2013-08-22 (Thu) = Low
2013-08-30 (Fri) = High
2013-10-07 (Mon) = Major Low
2013-11-01 (Fri) = Major High
2013-12-03 (Tue) = @ 0
2014-01-01 (Wed) = Low

Sunday, November 25, 2012

The Essence



Proportion is to Space what Rhythm is to Music
In the sight of the Essence, which is one, the universe is like a single being. The essential unity of the world is the most certain of things but also the most hidden: all knowledge and every perception, however adequate or inadequate, presupposes the essential Unity of beings and of things. 

... It may thus be said that man, who is a microcosm, and the universe, which is a macrocosm, are like two mirrors each reflecting the other. On the one hand man only exists in relation to the macrocosm which determines him, and on the other hand man knows the macrocosm, and this means that all the possibilities which are unfolded in the world are principally contained in man’s intellectual essence. This is the meaning of the saying in the Qur'ān: “And He (God) taught Adam all the names (i.e. all the essences of beings and of things)” (2:31) 

Titus Burckhardt (1953): Introduction to Sufi Doctrine, p. 63-64.

Monday, November 19, 2012

Trading Thanksgiving Week

HERE
According to Jeffrey Hirsch the best short-term trade strategy is to buy on Monday or Tuesday weakness and sell at least half into the Wednesday strength and get out on Friday of Thanksgiving week.  

Monday is usually weak (Dow Jones down 33 of last 60 years), but it’s getting better and better till Friday. Tuesday was up 35 of last 60. Wednesday is the most bullish day (up 44 of last 60) since 1952, and 8 since 2002. On average Friday is as good as Wednesday but was not so good recently since 2006. 

Applying this strategy in 2010 and 2011 resulted in net losses. This year there's a major deadline looming for the Super Committee to agree on a deficit reduction proposal by November 23rd. Failure to reach an agreement could have a major market impact that could buck any seasonal trend. See also HERE

Friday, November 16, 2012

45 Year Cycle

The second year of the Decennial Cycle again has this staggering correlation between the US stock markets of 1967 and 2012 - currently 89% (HERE). This is 45 years apart. W.D.Gann veiled it as follows: "The digits 1 to 9 when added together total 45. 45 is the most important angle. Therefore 45 years in time is a very important cycle. One-half of 45 is 22 ½ years or 270 months. One-fourth of 45 is 11 ½ years or 135 months, which is three times 45.

In other words: Saturn-Uranus Cycle ≈ 45.3 Years ≈ conjunction, square or opposition happening about every 11.3 Years ≈ 4 * Sunspot Cycles of an average of 11.3 Years.  Of course the 45 year cycle is important, but finally just one cycle among many others, all together modulating the tides of events.  

However, sure there are periods with a specific feeling, a mentality, a zeitgeist of the majority of people, an attitude, an aura, that last for about 45 years. Hence there is also a 45 year cycle of scientific and social innovation and stagnation, each of about 20 years where there is science innovation, but humanities, opinion and social relations are "conservative" and do not change. There is a transition of about 2 to 4 years and then the humanities have numerous experiments and changes, but science becomes stagnant and does not innovate. Social conflict, revolution and war are also synchronous with this pattern (HERE & HERE & HERE & HERE).

The average second year of a decade prints a major low around this time of the year, which is (on average) amongst the best long-term buying opportunities of the decade, since during the third year the DJIA significantly surges above the second year highs. Another important fact is, that the DJIA's closed the average Election Year solidly above the June and November lows. Jeffrey Hirsh points out: "Presidential election years are the second best performing year of the four-year cycle ... When incumbent parties retained power ... stocks often bottomed within two years later ... we could see a bottom by 2014." Ten years ago some stock indices bottomed in October 2002, others in March 2003. In fact, the 45 Year Cycle projects another major low into March 2013 (most likely below this upcoming November low), and the low of the decade into May 2015. This is 43 months off the March 2009 low or 4 more 9 Month Cycles throughs ahead of us, where the current Kitchin Cycle terminates. Much could be debated on whether it is the last one of Kondratieff-Winter or the 1st one of Spring in the 6th Kondratieff-Cycle.

Such long-term projections should be understood with a grain of salt, since planetary cycles are not circles, but ellipses, where angular distance and progression does not correlate 1:1 with solar or lunar calendars. Therefore measured in days, weeks or months, these big cycles oftentimes seem to extend or to skip and shrink (HERE). Also a sequence of cycles does not need to print out identical patterns, but similar ones. Therefore the projected panic low in early 2015 does not necessarily need to become a lower low. Given the inflationary monetary policy, it could very well just mark the end of a huge (even ascending) triangle pattern that started in 1998 and 2000. 

Ideally this current decline should end on November 19, and a rally throughout the Thanksgiving-week is likely. Mercury turns direct on November 26, which is best for a ITD #8 high. A drop into a higher low on the Lunar Eclipse on November 28 is expected. An intermediate high will be in by December 3-4. A decline into the December low around New Moon ideally ends on Monday, 17th. From there some sort of early and extended Santa Claus-rally will ensue into year end or even the first trading days of 2013 (see also HERE). This will be the end of the correction. From that important high (right shoulder in the Head-and-Shoulders pattern or TPDH #27) the stock markets will start another steep decline into the general vicinity of the October 2011 low (SPX 1.100 - 1.070 / DJI 10.600 - 10.400). This 9 month cycle low is scheduled for as early as March 1 or as late as the equinox. It will be the low of 2013, the start of a new TPDH-pattern and the launchpad for a rally into December 2013. This matches the latest prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 with a maximum in the Fall of 2013. What puzzles however is the Commercial's Eurodollar Positions suggesting the party will be over by late May early June 2013 already. Time will tell.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

SPX vs Solar Flux & Lunar Cycle

Active Region 1613, located in southern hemisphere, produced three M-class solar flares in last 6 hours. At 23:28 UTC, November 12, 2012 it peaked with M2.0 solar flare, then on November 13, 2012 at 02:04 an impulsive M6.0 peaked followed by M2.5 at 05:50 UTC (HERE). 

See also HERE & HERE

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Update - SPX vs Heliocentric Latitude Composite

2012-10-03 (Wed) = Swing-High 
2012-10-16 (Tue) = 1/4 Point
2012-10-28 (Sun) = 1/2 Point
2012-11-09 (Fri) = 3/4 Point
2012-11-21 (Wed) = Swing-Low

2012-12-01 (Sat) = 1/4 Point
2012-12-10 (Mon) = 1/2 Point
2012-12-20 (Thu) = 3/4 Point
2012-12-29 (Sat) = Swing-High


See also HERE.

SPX vs Outer Planets Going Retrograde / Direct


(Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution).
Stock markets' trend usually changes when the planets change direction, especially the outer ones.

11.10.2012  22:50 SA = Neptune direct 

T.S. Phillips: "This week’s major planetary event is Tuesday’s total Solar Eclipse  ... as Mercury squares Neptune ... The key reversal day of the week is likely to be after hours on Tuesday or on Wednesday.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

S&P 500 1967 vs 2012

The 1967 New Moons seem to be synchronized to the 2012 Full Moons = 16,434 CD = 44 years 11 months 28 days = analogous to Saturn-Uranus Cycle of 45.363 years = 1/2 of Gann's 90 Year Cycle. The 1967 - 2012 correlation is 89%. The daily close of Nov 7 may well be the low of the month (HERE). However, the 1967 bar chart predicts more choppy and unhealthy sideways-to-up movement into New Moon (Nov 13 = Solar Eclipse) followed by a retest of the low on Nov 16-19 (Fri-Mon).